What should pollsters do in the absence of a horse race?
A new episode of Cross Tabs, featuring Ariel Edwards-Levy
Episodes
Episode 20: Crypto Elections - Manufactured stats, invented voting blocs, and betting on elections
The latest episode features my interview with Molly White about crypto PACs and polls, and why they're not on the level. Remember: the house always wins. Unless it goes to jail. This episode came together because of a few things starting to collide in my head. And the
Episodes
Episode 19: Escape from #ElectionTwitter
A conversation with Split Ticket's Lakshya Jain Election forecasting is complicated, and every forecaster approaches the task differently. I talked to Lakshya Jain, co-founder of Split Ticket about their approach to election analysis, aggregators, models and more. You can listen to the episode here (don’t forget to
Episodes
Episode 18: Red America & Blue America
Latest episode is live, with Mike Podhorzer of Weekend Reading Quick, post-debate note to let you know I published the latest episode of Cross Tabs today, featuring my first repeat guest, Michael Podhorzer of Weekend Reading talking about his excellent thinking on The Two Americas. If you’re not familiar
Episodes
Episode 17: Do Something
In this post-nominating conventions episode, I reflect on lessons learned as we approach the last 60 days before the election. Some key themes include: • How not to be a crosstab truther • Why elections aren't really that much like markets • How forecasts predict the past • Why campaigns don'
Episodes
Episode 16: Takin it to the Spreadsheets, with Professor Michael McDonald
Election polling and voter turnout analysis are far more intricate than most people realize. From the challenges of non-response bias to the nuances of early voting patterns, understanding election forecasts requires a sophisticated approach beyond simple percentages and headlines. Listen to the episode on Spotify: The evolution of voter turnout
Episodes
Episode 15: In Our Feelings with Dr. Camille Burge-Hicks
Public opinion polling has long been a cornerstone of understanding voter preferences and predicting election outcomes. However, a closer examination reveals significant gaps in representation and methodology, particularly concerning minority groups and emotional factors influencing political behavior. This exploration into the evolution and shortcomings of political polling challenges our understanding
Episodes
Episode 14: The Nation's Data at Risk
A conversation with Connie Citro, a senior scholar at the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Federal statistical agencies are the unsung heroes of American policymaking and business strategy, providing critical data that shapes decisions across all sectors. However, these vital institutions face unprecedented challenges that threaten the quality
Episodes
Episode 13: Games People Play, with Valens Games
And a few notes on The Context There’s a new episode of Cross Tabs available in your feeds that dropped around midnight Eastern last night. We recorded it last Friday, July 19 — after the debate, after the weeks of controversy, after the failed assassination attempt on former President Trump
Episode 12: Allegiance & Belonging with Professor Ray Block Jr.
How polling can help us check assumptions about patriotism and civic participation
Episodes
Episode 12: Allegiance & Belonging with Professor Ray Block Jr.
How polling can help us check assumptions about patriotism and civic participation Political polling and civic engagement are complex landscapes, particularly when viewed through the lens of racial dynamics and community organizing. Traditional understanding of political participation often falls short in capturing the nuanced reality of how different communities engage
Episode 11 - Convenience Leads to Fraud, Part 2... This Time With Solutions!
Why researchers need to rethink their sample and research ops partnerships Despite sample providers' and some researchers' desire to downplay the problem, online survey fraud is pervasive in market research, with increasingly sophisticated scammers exploiting convenience sample sources and programmatic sample buying to manipulate results. As the industry