Episodes
A conversation with Split Ticket's Lakshya Jain Election forecasting is complicated, and every forecaster approaches the task differently. I talked to Lakshya Jain, co-founder of Split Ticket about their approach to election analysis, aggregators, models and more. You can listen to the episode here (don’t forget to
A conversation with Split Ticket's Lakshya Jain
Episodes
Latest episode is live, with Mike Podhorzer of Weekend Reading Quick, post-debate note to let you know I published the latest episode of Cross Tabs today, featuring my first repeat guest, Michael Podhorzer of Weekend Reading talking about his excellent thinking on The Two Americas. If you’re not familiar
Latest episode is live, with Mike Podhorzer of Weekend Reading
"Embrace uncertainty" versus the decimal place
Newsletter
"Embrace uncertainty" versus the decimal place Great advice for readers from Lakshya Jain from SplitTicket, whom I interviewed Friday for a forthcoming episode of Cross Tabs: “Embrace uncertainty.” I think that’s right, but it’s funny coming from folks who aren’t, in fact, embracing uncertainty1 — they’
Episodes
In this post-nominating conventions episode, I reflect on lessons learned as we approach the last 60 days before the election. Some key themes include: • How not to be a crosstab truther • Why elections aren't really that much like markets • How forecasts predict the past • Why campaigns don'
Episodes
Election polling and voter turnout analysis are far more intricate than most people realize. From the challenges of non-response bias to the nuances of early voting patterns, understanding election forecasts requires a sophisticated approach beyond simple percentages and headlines. Listen to the episode on Spotify: The evolution of voter turnout
Episodes
Public opinion polling has long been a cornerstone of understanding voter preferences and predicting election outcomes. However, a closer examination reveals significant gaps in representation and methodology, particularly concerning minority groups and emotional factors influencing political behavior. This exploration into the evolution and shortcomings of political polling challenges our understanding
Let's talk about the changing shape of the electorate, what a favorability score is anyway and how that effects the Democratic veepstakes... plus links
Newsletter
Let's talk about the changing shape of the electorate, what a favorability score is anyway and how that effects the Democratic veepstakes... plus links Three things today: 1. How things have changed (so far) since June. 2. What are favorability numbers, anyway, and what do they have to
Episodes
A conversation with Connie Citro, a senior scholar at the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Federal statistical agencies are the unsung heroes of American policymaking and business strategy, providing critical data that shapes decisions across all sectors. However, these vital institutions face unprecedented challenges that threaten the quality